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Issue #1, October 31, 1997

Draft Day Nuggets & Notes


It is now the time to go into your basketball draft and you need a nugget bad. Having done your ratings, you find that it is not a Denver Nugget you need because they are going to be one of the worst teams in basketball this year, and you know the old saying: "Never draft the best player on a bad team." Actually, that is not necessarily true. As a matter of fact, I shall debunk some old sayings in this article while giving you some "nuggets" and some guys to stay away from. The league I am in is called the Scott Skiles Memorial No Picnic League. After having been in a Rotisserie Baseball league for years where the guys would "have a cow" and want to throw out players who missed the picnic, a few of us basketball fans started our league and decided we wouldn't have any picnics. In our inaugural year, I did all the stats by hand myself. That was a horrible job. I also picked up Scott Skiles the week before he got 31 assists in one game, which pushed me to the top and allowed me to win the first championship of our seven year existence. Several owners did feel that my doing the stats might have been a contributing factor. (How could I have Skiles and Blaylock and do so well in FG%?) So the next year, as the self-appointed lifetime commissioner, I switched us to have Express Stats prepare our weekly reports. I had used them for baseball also, and found Rich's service to be the best I could imagine. Now, I have won the league 2 more times and also finished second once, so maybe it wasn't all due to my stat-keeping. But the Skiles pick up was so much luck (they thought!) that the name just evolved. But every year there is a "Scott Skiles" just waiting to be picked up out of the trash can of the NBA. You just have to know where to look, and how to find him. I will try to assist you in that endeavor.

Our basketball league uses 8 categories: Total points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, 3-point baskets made, FG% and FT%. Six cumulative and 2 percentage. Some leagues use free throws made rather than percentage, but we felt that was a very redundant category, and it seems more fair to punish Shaq for missing so many than to reward him again for making a few when he takes so many (he already gains in total points when he makes a free throw). Some leagues also use additional categories like turnovers, offensive rebounds and even personal fouls, but I will stick to the main 8 when analyzing a player.

So how about some of those "old sayings"? Well, one of my fellow league members, The Coyote,seems to have invented a bunch of "wise old rules of thumb". I don't believe in them (he has only won the league twice), but they are worth considering.

Never Draft the Best Player on a Bad Team:


This, of course, is nonsense. While our top picks every year are off the best teams (Jordan, Shaq, Malone, Hakeem & the Admiral), some outstanding stats can come from a great player on a bad team. Actually, the Coyote was mainly talking about the pathetic Clippers. Not drafting a Clipper is usually a good idea. Well, at least until you get into the late rounds where it is time to grab anyone that might play 2,000 minutes during the season. Two outstanding examples of this arcane philosophy are one new player and one old(er) player: Antoine Walker and Latrell Sprewell. In Boston, a horrific team with nearly no player with any rotisserie value, Walker stands out as a force. He can rebound, score, pass, well, he can do pretty much everything except have good percentages. And he has to have the stats. That team will revolve around him and he will be a top 15 pick player minimum at the end of the year. Take him early and enjoy. As for Latrell, well, what else can be said that his stats from last year don't already say. OK, he is a head case with a bad attitude ready to go into a funk over anything. But be aware that he is capable of putting up stats that compete with anyone (yes, even the king, Mr. Jordan).

No Old Guys:


This rule, although technically wrong, has some validity to it. While you will still draft Barkley, Drexler, Olajuwon and Ewing, (notice the abundance of Rockets),they won't be drafted as high, or ahead of some players with lesser stats due to the injury and rest factor. These type players, long time all-stars that drop slightly every year (Malone will have great stats for 2 years after he retires), begin to become risky. A good example of this is Tim Hardaway vs. Damon Stoudamire. In my raw rankings from last year, those 2 point guards were next to each other, with Tim having the slight edge. Taking into account that it was Damon's second year, and he will only continue to improve, and that Tim stayed injury free (unusual for him) and at best will stay the same but most likely will regress, at least some, then Stoudamire has to be the choice in the draft. Hey, look at that; another good player on a bad team!

Never Draft an Outside Shooter Who Lost His Big Center:


We could just name this the "Dennis Scott" rule, but then one of my league's members would think this is a shot at him. Look at the shooters that got killed when their dominating big man either went down to an injury or left the team: Sean Elliott and Vinnie Del Negro for San Antonio; Dennis Scott and Nick Anderson or Orlando; Robert Horry when HE left Houston. Ball goes inside, their man double teams, kicked back out and viola! an open shot at the hoop. This is not to say you can predict it, but I would be very wary this year of Voshon Lenard with Mourning out (wait, am I saying Mourning is dominating?). This rule does not apply to point guards. They will continue to get their shots. (See Tim Hardaway).

Go Big/Small on Your First Two Picks:


This is not a bad idea if you can do it. Take a big, shot blocker if possible. Then take a great point guard that gets steals, assists and can hit some 3's. The Coyote calls this "Power/Point". That leaves you with the ability for the next couple of rounds to take the best player available and not have to take a second-rate point guard when a first-rate forward has been left to you. Blocks are hard to get or else you need to draft Shawn (the Death Stick) Bradley too soon and that will ruin a draft quicker than a first round pick retiring on Monday after your draft on Saturday (it happened 2 years in a row). Last year I took Penny in the first round, Webber in the 2nd and Garnett in the 3rd. Low and behold in the 4th and 5th rounds, someone left me Kenny Anderson and Rod Strickland. After 5 rounds I had a great lineup. Now obviously you can't be passing Sprewell, Rice and Hill in the first couple of rounds to get a center and a point guard. But you need to be aware of this and try to get at least one of those type of players.

Beware of Players Changing Teams:


This one I actually agree with to a large extent. All I need to do is mention the names over the last several years: Robert Horry (another strike against him last year), Oliver Miller, Detlef Schrempf, Jamal Mashburn. Now, good players will shake that off and be better the second year with the team. And that rule doesn't necessarily apply to point guards (Tim Hardaway, David Wesley) or guys who have never been given much time before (Doug Christie). On the whole, I would be wary of Kemp and Baker this year. Not to say they won't be good, but maybe not AS good as expected. So who will be the surprise nuggets this year? Do not, under any condition rely on the magazines "fantasy ratings". I won't say they suck, well, because that would be an improvement. If you think I am kidding, pick up Preview Sports NBA Basketball rag, I mean mag. This "joke" rated each position, and had Mitch Richmond tied as the 25th best guard with Todd "the Tank" Day! With the comment "helps a fantasy owner with points, but not much beyond that". What was this guy smoking? Does anyone edit that magazine? I am still trying to find a category that "The Tank" Day comes close to Richmond in, much less beats him! The 25th ranking was a joke anyway, behind other such stellar guards as: Rick Fox (#14) and Jimmy Jackson (#20). Of course, Mitch was also tied with the immortal Toni Kukoc! And Fantasy Basketball Guide had Derrick Coleman listed as the 12th best draft pick!

Big Step-Up's (the "Kevin Garnett" status) for: Antoine Walker, Michael Finley, Wesley Person (an exception to the {"Changing Teams" rule), Eric Williams (ditto).

Big Improvement's (the "Doug Christie" status" for: John Wallace, Toronto, Walter McCarty, Boston, Bobby Sura, Cleveland.

Huge Drop's (the "Allan Houston" status) for: Cliff Robinson, Rick Fox, Kendall Gill.

Now, if you have any specific questions for me, just email me at: clarida1@pacbell.net and I will answer your questions. Remember going into the draft: If Allen Iverson is the "Answer", maybe you shouldn't be asking the question.


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